tends to be about six weeks behind that country. That country has a new variant - or two variants that are very similar to the one here in the U.S. And, you know, this prediction is supported with - by what's happening in South Africa right now. It might get another name by then, but yeah. SHAPIRO: So you're telling me that if last summer vacation was all about the delta variant vacation, this summer is going to be BA.2.12.1?ĭOUCLEFF: Yes. It really just depends on people's behavior and the weather how big of a sort of bump it is.ĭOUCLEFF: So this bump or surge she's talking about will likely occur in about a month or two, she says. So I think the question is how high will it go before it peaks? I don't know the answer to that. SHISHI LUO: Because the current trajectory is that it's growing, and we're seeing rises in new cases, and we're seeing wastewater levels go up. She says there's little doubt that this new variant will cause a surge in cases. She's a bioinformatician at the company Helix, which tracks variants across the country.
In terms of whether it will cause another wave, I was talking to Shishi Luo about that. And given its current trajectory, it will likely dominate the outbreak here in the U.S.
SHAPIRO: And so where is it now and how likely is it that this is going to cause another surge?ĭOUCLEFF: Yeah, it's most common in New York, New Jersey and the mid-Atlantic States, but it's present throughout the whole country. Basically, the omicron variant picked up several mutations that give it an advantage and help it spread faster than the previous version, about 50% faster. And health officials found that the cause of that surge was a new variant. So about a month ago, New York state was having a mini surge, especially in the center part of the state. What do they know about it?ĭOUCLEFF: Yeah. overall, but tell us about this new variant that scientists are concerned about. SHAPIRO: Cases are still low across the U.S. NPR's Michaeleen Doucleff is here to tell us about it. But COVID cases are now taking up again, and scientists are concerned that a new variant may cause another surge. Daily case counts were declining across the country at the lowest they had been since last summer. Two new studies shed light on the potential for future surges - and the risk factor if you've already had omicron.įor a few months, it looked like COVID-19 was retreating in the U.S. New versions of omicron are circulating in the United States and South Africa.
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